Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham: A New Chapter for Syria or a Repetition of the Past?

This Op-ed is available in Italian on "Strumenti Politici".

Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's recent ascent to power in parts of Syria raises critical questions about the future of the war-torn nation. While the group has attempted to distance itself from its extremist past, concerns persist regarding its potential to replicate the authoritarian tendencies and sectarian divisions that have plagued the Assad regime for decades. One of the most pressing issues is the group's capacity to unite the fractured Syrian opposition. Despite its efforts to present itself as a unifying force, HTS remains a controversial figure, particularly among moderate Syrian factions. The group's history, rooted in extremism and its association with al-Qaeda, continues to cast a long shadow, making it difficult for it to garner widespread support especially since most rebels belonging to other revolutionary groups still in prison, while foreign fighters who previously joined Siryan armed groups with the idea of creating an Islamic Caliphate represent the real strength of Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani’s leadership.

To understand that, we should go back to April 2017 when a significant incident occurred in the Eastern Ghouta region of Syria, where a protest calling for an end to infighting among rebel factions turned deadly. As protesters marched towards Arbeen, a stronghold of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham at that time, they were met with gunfire, resulting in multiple casualties. This tragic event underscored the deep divisions and power struggles within the Syrian opposition, as various factions competed for control of territory and resources. The incident sparked widespread condemnation and further highlighted the humanitarian crisis facing civilians caught in the crossfire. As various factions vie for control, civilians continue to suffer.

 Many Syrians yearn for a future free from the authoritarianism and sectarianism that has plagued their country for decades. The replacement of Assad's symbols with those of figures like Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, a controversial leader with ties to extremism, raises concerns about the direction of the Syrian revolution. Instead of perpetuating a cycle of violence and division, Syrians hope for a moderate and prosperous future that prioritizes the needs and aspirations of the people.While the 2017 clashes in Ghouta escalated tensions, the underlying issues ran deeper. The elimination of Jaysh al-Islam, a powerful faction in Ghouta last year, by a coalition that included the then-al-Nusra Front, marked a turning point. This event set a precedent, with al-Nusra Front systematically targeting and neutralizing other rebel factions across Syria over the next few years. This period saw the displacement, persecution, and even the elimination of entire factions, their fighters, and their families. While HTS now presents a more moderate image, the Syrian people remain wary of this transformation. Years of witnessing the erosion of the revolution from within have fostered a deep-seated distrust. The current support for HTS among some segments of the population may be a reflection of limited options rather than genuine acceptance. The Syrian people, having endured years of war and suffering, fear that this apparent shift is merely a temporary facade, a calculated move to consolidate power and ultimately replicate the authoritarianism they have long sought to escape. The Jaysh al-Islam and the Ahrar al-Sham movements were among the largest factions in Syria controlling approximately 80 per cent of Syrian territory.HTS's strength stems largely from its systematic elimination of rival factions except today to adopt their same approach. Initially a weak branch of al-Qaeda, HTS gained prominence after distancing itself from ISIS and finding refuge among other Syrian rebel groups around 2014.

However, its subsequent rise involved the suppression of these very factions, leading to the displacement and persecution of their fighters, families, and supporters. This ruthless campaign, driven by a desire for dominance, has left HTS as a main force in Idlib. The shift in HTS's public image, with al-Julani adopting a more moderate persona, is met with skepticism. This apparent transformation, from a jihadist group to a potential savior of Syria, raises concerns about its true intentions and whether it genuinely seeks a peaceful and inclusive future for the country. The internal conflicts within the Syrian opposition, while initially driven by differing ideologies, ultimately served to weaken the overall resistance against the Assad regime. Ironically, HTS, the very group that contributed to this fragmentation, now appears to be consolidating power in a manner reminiscent of the very regime it once opposed.One of the key challenges facing HTS is the need to address the issue of sectarianism. The Syrian conflict has been fueled by deep-seated sectarian divisions, and HTS must strive to promote a more inclusive and tolerant society. This will require significant efforts to reconcile with different religious and ethnic groups, as well as to dismantle the sectarian networks that have been established over the years. Ultimately, the future of Syria will depend on a comprehensive political solution that addresses the root causes of the conflict. This will require the involvement of all relevant stakeholders, including the Syrian government, the opposition, and the international community. While HTS may play a role in shaping the future of Syria, it is unlikely to be the sole determinant and to understand that it’s necessary analyze the issues between HTS, Jaysh al-Islam, and Harakat Ahrar al-Sham. So, the success of any political settlement that will change the paradigm will depend on a delicate balance of power and compromise between the various factions, otherwise what seems a geopolitical game will only replace Assad with a new generation of Islamic dictators.Furthermore, the issue of self-administration in regions like Raqqa and Hasakah adds another layer of complexity. Mazloum Abdi, the leader of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), has demanded that the military operations management, largely controlled by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham, be included in the Syrian government with official recognition of the self-administration region. He has also advocated for US involvement in this process. The extent to which the military operations management, backed by Turkey, will accept these demands remains uncertain. This highlights the intricate web of competing interests and power struggles within Syria.Moreover, the ongoing foreign interference in the Syrian conflict with Israel occupying the entire south of the country complicates the situation further. It's worth noting that the people of Sweida, facing significant challenges, have even expressed a desire to join Israel directly, reflecting the desperation and disillusionment felt by many Syrians. Regional powers like Iran, Russia, Israel and Turkey have their own vested interests in the region, and their support for various factions has exacerbated the divisions within the Syrian opposition.

HTS's ability to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape and maintain its autonomy will be crucial in determining its long-term success. Also, the immediate suspension of visa applications for Syrians by the European Union is a complex response to a multifaceted crisis. While it is understandable that EU member states are concerned about the potential influx of refugees, the swiftness of this decision raises questions about the extent of Western understanding of the situation on the ground. This move could be interpreted as either a proactive measure based on prior intelligence or a reactive response driven by domestic political pressures. Regardless of the motivation, it highlights the ongoing challenge of balancing humanitarian concerns with national interests in the context of the Syrian conflict.In conclusion, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham's rise to power presents both opportunities and challenges for Syria. While the group has the potential to provide stability and security in the regions it controls, it must also address the legacies of the past, including sectarianism and foreign interference. Only by embracing a more inclusive and tolerant approach can HTS hope to break the cycle of violence and division that has plagued Syria for over a decade. The group's pledge to avoid actions that could upset Western powers is a strategic move aimed at securing international recognition and potentially easing sanctions. However, the long-term implications of this shift remain uncertain. While the absence of foreign fighters and terrorist attacks may provide temporary stability, the fundamental issues that have fueled the Syrian conflict, such as authoritarianism, sectarianism, and foreign interference, persist. The future of Syria hinges on the ability of all parties involved to engage in genuine dialogue and compromise, with the ultimate goal of achieving a lasting peace that respects the rights and aspirations of the Syrian people in all its components. Because if Assad has fallen, the mentality still there.